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Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Ferriolense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
CANC
00:00
Ferriolense
Ferriolense
4/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas68%
×Draw20%
Ferriolense12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.05
Ferriolense
0.74

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 177% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.14
Ferriolense
1.04

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.44
Ferriolense
1.96

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par
Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Ferriolense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw
88%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Ferriolense
80%
Draw or Ferriolense
32%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
43%
Ferriolense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
87%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
61%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
33%
Ferriolense 1+ goals
52%
Ferriolense 2+ goals
17%
Ferriolense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
84%
Ferriolense (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
68%
level
20%
Ferriolense scores more
12%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas face Ferriolense (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Ibiza Islas Pitiusas hosting Ferriolense. Match starts April 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas host Ferriolense at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.