Ferriolense 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ferriolense

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Juan Carlos 90+3'

Cristian Terán 25'

11/7/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ferriolense19%

×Draw24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerriolenseExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.67

Ferriolense

0.84

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.67

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 99% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

1.10

creates per match

2.00

1.34

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Ferriolense

1.10

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Ferriolense

1.34

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferriolense+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferriolense ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ferriolense or draw

43%

Ferriolense or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

81%

Winning margin

Ferriolense wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Ferriolense 1+ goals

57%

Ferriolense 2+ goals

21%

Ferriolense 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

50%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Ferriolense (draw refunded)

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ferriolense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 29 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ferriolense attack 1.10 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.84

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Ferriolense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ferriolense scores more

19%

level

24%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

57%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Cristian Terán

30'

Álvaro Ramos← Marcos Morenilla

63'

Colo← Onofre Riera

67'

Antonio Cortes← Javi Roldán

67'

Alex Fernández← Carlos Castell

67'

Iván Sales← David Serrano

81'

Pons← Alex Pons

81'

Daniel Gomera← Nene

87'

Gorka Ramón← Kike Fajarnes

90+3'

Juan Carlos

Ferriolense

Ibiza

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Toni Sanchez

30'▲Álvaro Ramos←▼Marcos Morenilla

67'▲Antonio Cortes←▼Javi Roldán

67'▲Alex Fernández←▼Carlos Castell

81'▲Pons←▼Alex Pons

81'▲Daniel Gomera←▼Nene

Ferriolense substitutes

RamosCortesFernándezPonsGomera

Manager: Alberto Gallego

63'▲Colo←▼Onofre Riera

67'▲Iván Sales←▼David Serrano

87'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Kike Fajarnes

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

ColoSalesRamón

Match Recap: Ferriolense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Ferriolense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 7, 2020.

Goals: Cristian Terán (25'), Juan Carlos (90+3').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Son Ferriol in Mallorca.

Ferriolense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ferriolense vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas