Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2–1 Felanitx: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Felanitx

E. Franco 89'

Ismael Barragán 71'

Jesus Garcia 61'

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas65%

×Draw21%

Felanitx14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchFelanitx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.76

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.93

Felanitx

0.76

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 154% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 99 away

2.14

creates per match

1.07

0.44

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Felanitx

1.07

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Felanitx

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Felanitx+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Felanitx →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

86%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Felanitx

79%

Draw or Felanitx

35%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

39%

Felanitx wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

85%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

57%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

30%

Felanitx 1+ goals

53%

Felanitx 2+ goals

18%

Felanitx 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

82%

Felanitx (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Felanitx away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Felanitx defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.93

Felanitx attack 1.07 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

65%

level

21%

Felanitx scores more

14%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Franco← F. Losada

61'

Jesus Garcia

71'

Ismael Barragán

74'

Alejandro Iniesta← Jesus Garcia

82'

M. Aouaj← Alejandro Iniesta

86'

Iván Sales← Gorka Ramón

88'

Colo← Omar Álvarez

88'

Jaume Villar← Juan Carlos

89'

Alhama← R. Cuenca

89'

E. Franco

Ibiza

Felanitx

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alberto Gallego

46'▲E. Franco←▼F. Losada

86'▲Iván Sales←▼Gorka Ramón

88'▲Colo←▼Omar Álvarez

88'▲Jaume Villar←▼Juan Carlos

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FrancoSalesColoVillar

Manager: Paco Navarrete

74'▲Alejandro Iniesta←▼Jesus Garcia

82'▲M. Aouaj←▼Alejandro Iniesta

89'▲Alhama←▼R. Cuenca

Felanitx substitutes

IniestaAouajAlhama