Felanitx 0–3 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Felanitx

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Marquitos 86'

Álex Sánchez 84'

Sebastiá 23' (OG)

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 32Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Felanitx22%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FelanitxExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.61

Felanitx

0.94

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.61

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 71% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.29

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Felanitx

1.29

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Felanitx

1.23

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw

47%

Felanitx or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

78%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals

61%

Felanitx 2+ goals

24%

Felanitx 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

80%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

48%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)

29%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.94

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Felanitx scores more

22%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

53%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

SebastiáOwn goal

57'

Xesc Navalón← Carlos Inglada

57'

Jorge Bengoetxea← Felipao

61'

Bernat Muntaner← Toni Joan

61'

Nene← Dani Codina

68'

Carlos González← Cristian Micó

72'

Álex Sánchez← Roberto Fernández

72'

Mario Riquelme← Dani Sales

79'

Marquitos← Pablo Cortijo

84'

S. Doudouch← Jesus Garcia

84'

Chamba← Xavi Bordoy

84'

Álex Sánchez

86'

Marquitos

Felanitx

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Cosme Monserrat

61'▲Bernat Muntaner←▼Toni Joan

61'▲Nene←▼Dani Codina

68'▲Carlos González←▼Cristian Micó

84'▲S. Doudouch←▼Jesus Garcia

84'▲Chamba←▼Xavi Bordoy

Felanitx substitutes

MuntanerNeneGonzálezDoudouchChamba

Manager: Raúl Casañ

57'▲Xesc Navalón←▼Carlos Inglada

57'▲Jorge Bengoetxea←▼Felipao

72'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Roberto Fernández

72'▲Mario Riquelme←▼Dani Sales

79'▲Marquitos←▼Pablo Cortijo

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

NavalónBengoetxeaSánchezRiquelmeMarquitos

Match Recap: Felanitx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Felanitx 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 1, 2024.

Goals: Sebastiá (23' o.g.), Álex Sánchez (84'), Marquitos (86').

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.

Felanitx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Felanitx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas