Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 Esporles: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Esporles

Cristian Terán 80', 15'

Solano 68'

Colau 24'

9/7/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas76%

×Draw17%

Esporles7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchEsporles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.51

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.16

Esporles

0.51

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 324% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

2.14

creates per match

0.57

0.44

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Esporles

0.57

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Esporles

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Esporles →

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

93%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Esporles

83%

Draw or Esporles

24%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

50%

Esporles wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

88%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

63%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

36%

Esporles 1+ goals

40%

Esporles 2+ goals

Esporles 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

91%

Esporles (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.16

Esporles attack 0.57 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

76%

level

17%

Esporles scores more

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Cristian Terán

24'

Colau

46'

Nilson Samudio← Alberto Moreno

46'

Lucas Ferrer← Leopoldo

52'

Sergi Piña← Colau

62'

L. Becchio← Sandro Ortiz

68'

Solano

71'

Cala← Ismael Barragán

75'

Kike Fajarnes← José Arias

80'

Cristian Terán

Ibiza

Esporles

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Pérez

52'▲Sergi Piña←▼Colau

71'▲Cala←▼Ismael Barragán

75'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼José Arias

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

PiñaCalaFajarnes

Manager: Isidro Marín

46'▲Nilson Samudio←▼Alberto Moreno

46'▲Lucas Ferrer←▼Leopoldo

62'▲L. Becchio←▼Sandro Ortiz

Esporles substitutes

SamudioFerrerBecchio

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Esporles

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Esporles 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 7, 2019.

Goals: Cristian Terán (15', 80'), Colau (24'), Solano (68').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Esporles