Esporles 2–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Esporles

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Raul Marin 87'

L. Becchio 75'

Colau 53'

Javi Gómez 47'

S. Balalarabe 26'

Cristian Terán 23'

2/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles14%

×Draw19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsporlesExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

2.21

Esporles

0.90

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.21

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 146% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

1.21

creates per match

2.00

2.41

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Esporles

1.21

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Esporles

2.41

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Esporles or draw

33%

Esporles or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

81%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

86%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals

59%

Esporles 2+ goals

23%

Esporles 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

89%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

65%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)

17%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.90

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Esporles scores more

14%

level

19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

67%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Cristian Terán

26'

S. Balalarabe

47'

Javi Gómez

51'

Sebas Carbonell← Leonardo Germán

53'

Colau

57'

Raul Marin← Pere Mascaró

64'

Moreno← Colau

70'

F. Mascia← S. Balalarabe

75'

L. Becchio

76'

Salva Rojas← L. Becchio

78'

Gorka Ramón← Ismael Barragán

87'

Raul Marin

Esporles

Ibiza

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Becchio

Arbós

Manager: Isidro Marín

51'▲Sebas Carbonell←▼Leonardo Germán

57'▲Raul Marin←▼Pere Mascaró

76'▲Salva Rojas←▼L. Becchio

Esporles substitutes

CarbonellMarinRojas

Manager: José Pérez

64'▲Moreno←▼Colau

70'▲F. Mascia←▼S. Balalarabe

78'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Ismael Barragán

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MorenoMasciaRamón

Match Recap: Esporles vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Esporles 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 1, 2020.

Goals: Cristian Terán (23'), S. Balalarabe (26'), Javi Gómez (47'), Colau (53'), L. Becchio (75'), Raul Marin (87').

The match was played at Son Quint Estadio in Esporles.

Esporles vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Esporles vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas