Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–3 Constància: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Constància

Xesc Navalón 90', 32'

Felipao 89'

A. Giaquinto 85', 75'

Juan Suasi 63'

3/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas56%

×Draw25%

Constància19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchConstància

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.59

Constància

0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 101% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 115 away

2.14

creates per match

1.15

0.44

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Constància

1.15

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Constància

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Constància+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Constància →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Constància

75%

Draw or Constància

44%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

30%

Constància wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

80%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

47%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

21%

Constància 1+ goals

55%

Constància 2+ goals

19%

Constància 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

75%

Constància (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Constància away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.04 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Constància defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.59

Constància attack 1.15 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

56%

level

25%

Constància scores more

19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Xesc Navalón

63'

Juan Suasi

68'

Jorge Bengoetxea← Marquitos

68'

Felipao← Juanca Alarcón

73'

Joan Roig← Mateu Bibiloni

75'

A. Giaquinto

80'

Álex Sánchez← Pablo Cortijo

80'

Dani Sales← Nofre Riera

80'

Mario Riquelme← F. Núñez

85'

A. Giaquinto

87'

Nico Baleani← A. Giaquinto

89'

90+4'

90+4'

90'

Ibiza

Constància

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Raúl Casañ

68'▲Jorge Bengoetxea←▼Marquitos

68'▲Felipao←▼Juanca Alarcón

80'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Pablo Cortijo

80'▲Dani Sales←▼Nofre Riera

80'▲Mario Riquelme←▼F. Núñez

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

BengoetxeaFelipaoSánchezSalesRiquelme

Manager: Guillermo Llaneras

73'▲Joan Roig←▼Mateu Bibiloni

87'▲Nico Baleani←▼A. Giaquinto

Constància substitutes

RoigBaleani

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–3 Constància

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas and Constància drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 28, 2024.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (32', 90'), Juan Suasi (63'), A. Giaquinto (75', 85'), Felipao (89').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Constància — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–3 Constància