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Constància vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Constància
Constància
CANC
00:00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 33Nou Camp de Inca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Constància31%
×Draw27%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Constància
1.13
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.39

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 44 away

creates per match

Constància
1.66
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00

allows per match

Constància
0.78
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.59

finishing

Constància+0.00on par
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Constància ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Constància or draw
57%
Constància or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
73%
Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
69%

Winning margin

Constància wins by 2+
12%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Constància 1+ goals
68%
Constància 2+ goals
31%
Constància 3+ goals
11%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals
75%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals
40%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Constància (draw refunded)
42%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Constància at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.78 · 112 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Constància attack 1.66 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Constància defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Constància scores more
31%
level
27%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more
43%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Constància vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Match Preview

Constància face Ibiza Islas Pitiusas on April 12, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Constància host Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at Nou Camp de Inca.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.