Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 Arenal: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Arenal

Juanca Alarcón 61', 5'

Jorge Bengoetxea 53', 38'

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas73%

×Draw18%

Arenal8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchArenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.52

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.04

Arenal

0.52

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 292% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

2.14

creates per match

0.59

0.44

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Arenal

0.59

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Arenal

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Arenal →

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

92%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Arenal

82%

Draw or Arenal

27%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

47%

Arenal wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

60%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

33%

Arenal 1+ goals

41%

Arenal 2+ goals

10%

Arenal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

90%

Arenal (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.04

Arenal attack 0.59 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

73%

level

18%

Arenal scores more

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

53'

61'

62'

Mario Riquelme← Marquitos

62'

Airam López← Jaume Villar

63'

Juanca← Jesús Sánchez

63'

Francisco Gaya← Christian de Dios

63'

Toni Arrom← Pape Sane

67'

Roberto Fernández← Juanca Alarcón

74'

Álex Vera← Dani Sales

74'

David Sánchez← Carlos Inglada

74'

Pep Canals← David Movilla

81'

Sergio Ucles← Chino

Ibiza

Arenal

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Alarcón

Manager: Raúl Casañ

62'▲Mario Riquelme←▼Marquitos

62'▲Airam López←▼Jaume Villar

67'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Juanca Alarcón

74'▲Álex Vera←▼Dani Sales

74'▲David Sánchez←▼Carlos Inglada

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RiquelmeLópezFernándezVeraSánchez

Manager: Sergio Tíscar

63'▲Juanca←▼Jesús Sánchez

63'▲Francisco Gaya←▼Christian de Dios

63'▲Toni Arrom←▼Pape Sane

74'▲Pep Canals←▼David Movilla

81'▲Sergio Ucles←▼Chino

Arenal substitutes

JuancaGayaArromCanalsUcles

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 Arenal

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Arenal 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: Juanca Alarcón (5', 61'), Jorge Bengoetxea (38', 53').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Arenal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 4–0 Arenal