Arenal 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Arenal

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Dani Sales 86'

Xesc Navalón 64' (pen)

10/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal17%

×Draw23%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenalExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.77

Arenal

0.82

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.77

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 116% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

1.06

creates per match

2.00

1.53

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Arenal

1.06

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Arenal

1.53

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–113%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arenal or draw

40%

Arenal or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

77%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

83%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals

56%

Arenal 2+ goals

20%

Arenal 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

83%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

53%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)

22%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.82

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arenal scores more

17%

level

23%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

60%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Juanca← Marcos Millán

64'

Felipao← Carlos Fernández

64'

Xesc NavalónPenalty

70'

C. Carosso← Mario Riquelme

76'

Cristian Cruz← Felipao

76'

Roberto Fernández← Pablo Cortijo

78'

Guille← Vicente Capella

78'

Chino← Juan José

83'

Alou Diop← Turu

86'

Dani Sales

Arenal

Ibiza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergio Tíscar

59'▲Juanca←▼Marcos Millán

78'▲Guille←▼Vicente Capella

78'▲Chino←▼Juan José

83'▲Alou Diop←▼Turu

Arenal substitutes

JuancaGuilleChinoDiop

Manager: Raúl Casañ

64'▲Felipao←▼Carlos Fernández

70'▲C. Carosso←▼Mario Riquelme

76'▲Cristian Cruz←▼Felipao

76'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Pablo Cortijo

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FelipaoCarossoCruzFernández

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Arenal 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Arenal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 14, 2023.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (64' pen), Dani Sales (86').

The match was played at Estadio Son Verí in S'Arenal de Llucmajor.

Arenal vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Arenal 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas