Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1 Andratx: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Andratx

Gorka Ramón 87'

Moha 69'

Cristian Terán 16'

Guillermo Palmer 68'

12/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 16Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas50%

×Draw24%

Andratx25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchAndratx

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.12

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.68

Andratx

1.12

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 50% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 41 away

2.14

creates per match

1.80

0.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Andratx

1.80

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Andratx

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Andratx →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

75%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Andratx

76%

Draw or Andratx

50%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

27%

Andratx wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

81%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

50%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

24%

Andratx 1+ goals

67%

Andratx 2+ goals

31%

Andratx 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

66%

Andratx (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.68

Andratx attack 1.80 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

50%

level

24%

Andratx scores more

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Cristian Terán

60'

Ruben Nova← Mario Bota

67'

Kike Fajarnes← Moreno

68'

Guillermo Palmer

69'

Moha

70'

Miguel Mesquida← Carlos Lorente

71'

Sergi Piña← José Arias

76'

Bauzá← Chechu

81'

Gorka Ramón← Colau

87'

Gorka Ramón

Ibiza

Andratx

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: José Pérez

67'▲Kike Fajarnes←▼Moreno

71'▲Sergi Piña←▼José Arias

81'▲Gorka Ramón←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FajarnesPiñaRamón

Manager: Jose Contreras

60'▲Ruben Nova←▼Mario Bota

70'▲Miguel Mesquida←▼Carlos Lorente

76'▲Bauzá←▼Chechu

Andratx substitutes

NovaMesquidaBauzá

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Andratx

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Andratx 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on December 14, 2019.

Goals: Cristian Terán (16'), Guillermo Palmer (68'), Moha (69'), Gorka Ramón (87').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Can Misses in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Andratx