Andratx 1–0 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Andratx

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Bauzá 33'

10/24/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Estadio Sa Plana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Andratx38%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AndratxExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.37

Andratx

1.40

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 44 away

2.21

creates per match

2.00

0.74

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Andratx

2.21

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Andratx

0.74

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Andratx+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Andratx ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Andratx or draw

63%

Andratx or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

62%

Winning margin

Andratx wins by 2+

18%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Andratx 1+ goals

75%

Andratx 2+ goals

41%

Andratx 3+ goals

17%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

75%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

40%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Andratx (draw refunded)

51%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Andratx at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Andratx attack 2.21 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Andratx defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Andratx scores more

38%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

37%

Andratx at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Bauzá

58'

Ernesto← Bauzá

72'

Moreno← G. Simeone

74'

M. Kalnins← Miquel Llabrés

79'

Domi Zamora← Gorka Ramón

82'

Diego Martínez← Guillermo Palmer

82'

Rafa Gutiérrez← Vinicius

86'

Dani← Onofre Riera

Andratx

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jose Contreras

58'▲Ernesto←▼Bauzá

74'▲M. Kalnins←▼Miquel Llabrés

82'▲Diego Martínez←▼Guillermo Palmer

82'▲Rafa Gutiérrez←▼Vinicius

Andratx substitutes

ErnestoKalninsMartínezGutiérrez

Manager: Alberto Gallego

72'▲Moreno←▼G. Simeone

79'▲Domi Zamora←▼Gorka Ramón

86'▲Dani←▼Onofre Riera

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MorenoZamoraDani

Match Recap: Andratx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Andratx beat Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 24, 2020.

Goals: Bauzá (33').

The match was played at Estadio Sa Plana in Andratx.

Andratx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Andratx vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas