Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–1 Alcúdia: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Alcúdia

F. Mascia 90+2'

Colau 51'

Cristian Terán 34'

Jaume Pol 25' (pen)

2/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 23Estadio Municipal de Can Misses

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas67%

×Draw20%

Alcúdia13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchAlcúdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.08

Alcúdia

0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 163% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 79 away

2.14

creates per match

1.15

0.44

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Alcúdia

1.15

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Alcúdia

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Alcúdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Alcúdia →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Alcúdia

80%

Draw or Alcúdia

33%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

42%

Alcúdia wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

61%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

34%

Alcúdia 1+ goals

55%

Alcúdia 2+ goals

19%

Alcúdia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

84%

Alcúdia (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Alcúdia away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.03 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Alcúdia defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.08

Alcúdia attack 1.15 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

67%

level

20%

Alcúdia scores more

13%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Jaume PolPenalty

34'

Cristian Terán

46'

David Valverde← Michu

51'

Colau

65'

Melo← Onofre Riera

65'

Cristofol Rigo← Alex Cabezas

72'

Adri Castro← Álvaro Narbona

79'

F. Mascia← S. Balalarabe

85'

Solano← Colau

90+2'

F. Mascia

Ibiza

Alcúdia

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Pérez

65'▲Melo←▼Onofre Riera

79'▲F. Mascia←▼S. Balalarabe

85'▲Solano←▼Colau

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MeloMasciaSolano

Manager: José Barceló

46'▲David Valverde←▼Michu

65'▲Cristofol Rigo←▼Alex Cabezas

72'▲Adri Castro←▼Álvaro Narbona

Alcúdia substitutes

ValverdeRigoCastro