Alcúdia 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Alcúdia

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

José Gálvez 65'

Cala 76'

Colau 41'

9/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 4Estadi Municipal Els Arcs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Alcúdia24%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcúdiaExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.58

Alcúdia

1.01

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.58

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 44 away

1.44

creates per match

2.00

1.16

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Alcúdia

1.44

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Alcúdia

1.16

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcúdia+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcúdia ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alcúdia or draw

49%

Alcúdia or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

76%

Winning margin

Alcúdia wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Alcúdia 1+ goals

64%

Alcúdia 2+ goals

27%

Alcúdia 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

79%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

47%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alcúdia (draw refunded)

32%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alcúdia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.16 · 80 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alcúdia attack 1.44 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.01

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Alcúdia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcúdia scores more

24%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

51%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Colau

46'

Eros Jellouli← Alex Cabezas

59'

Cala← Colau

65'

José Gálvez

67'

Onofre Riera← Moreno

68'

Miquel Sabater← Adrià

73'

Sergi Piña← José Arias

76'

Cala

84'

Álvaro Narbona← Adri Castro

Alcúdia

Ibiza

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Barceló

46'▲Eros Jellouli←▼Alex Cabezas

68'▲Miquel Sabater←▼Adrià

84'▲Álvaro Narbona←▼Adri Castro

Alcúdia substitutes

JellouliSabaterNarbona

Manager: José Pérez

59'▲Cala←▼Colau

67'▲Onofre Riera←▼Moreno

73'▲Sergi Piña←▼José Arias

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

CalaRieraPiña

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alcúdia 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Alcúdia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 15, 2019.

Goals: Colau (41'), José Gálvez (65'), Cala (76').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs in Mallorca.

Alcúdia vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Alcúdia 1–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas