Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–0 Alaior: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Alaior

Sergio Martínez 90+3'

Xesc Navalón 57', 29' (pen)

9/10/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 1Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas70%

×Draw20%

Alaior10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchAlaior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.60

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.98

Alaior

0.60

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 230% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

2.14

creates per match

0.76

0.44

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Alaior

0.76

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Alaior

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Alaior →

0–08%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

90%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Alaior

80%

Draw or Alaior

30%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

44%

Alaior wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

86%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

59%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

31%

Alaior 1+ goals

45%

Alaior 2+ goals

12%

Alaior 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

87%

Alaior (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.98

Alaior attack 0.76 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

70%

level

20%

Alaior scores more

10%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

29'

Xesc NavalónPenalty

46'

Nil Ruz← Joel Marqués

57'

Xesc Navalón

59'

Carlos Fernández← Álex Sánchez

63'

Jaume Villar← Dani Sales

63'

Roberto Fernández← C. Carosso

69'

Carlos Gomez-Vizcaino← Santi Mir

69'

Isaac Barro← Marc Mercadal

77'

Mario Hernández← Mario Riquelme

77'

Gorka Marin← Xesc Navalón

84'

Raúl Villalonga← Ramón Huescar

90+3'

Sergio Martínez

Ibiza

Alaior

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Raúl Casañ

59'▲Carlos Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

63'▲Jaume Villar←▼Dani Sales

63'▲Roberto Fernández←▼C. Carosso

77'▲Mario Hernández←▼Mario Riquelme

77'▲Gorka Marin←▼Xesc Navalón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

FernándezVillarFernándezHernándezMarin

Manager: Moyano

46'▲Nil Ruz←▼Joel Marqués

69'▲Carlos Gomez-Vizcaino←▼Santi Mir

69'▲Isaac Barro←▼Marc Mercadal

84'▲Raúl Villalonga←▼Ramón Huescar

Alaior substitutes

RuzGomez-VizcainoBarroVillalonga