Alaior 0–1 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Alaior

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Xesc Navalón 35'

1/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 18Estadio Los Pinos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Alaior16%

×Draw25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlaiorExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

1.59

Alaior

0.70

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.59

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 127% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 44 away

0.82

creates per match

2.00

1.18

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Alaior

0.82

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Alaior

1.18

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaior+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaior ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–010%

0–116%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alaior or draw

41%

Alaior or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

84%

Winning margin

Alaior wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Alaior 1+ goals

50%

Alaior 2+ goals

16%

Alaior 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

80%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

47%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alaior (draw refunded)

22%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alaior at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alaior attack 0.82 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.70

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Alaior defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alaior scores more

16%

level

25%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

59%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Xesc Navalón

46'

Marquitos← Nofre Riera

70'

Joel Marqués← Raúl Fulgueira

70'

Nil Ruz← Isaac Barro

76'

Adrián López← Santi Mir

76'

Raúl Pons← Raúl Villalonga

76'

Dani Sales← Mario Riquelme

76'

F. Núñez← Xesc Navalón

Alaior

Ibiza

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Moyano

70'▲Joel Marqués←▼Raúl Fulgueira

70'▲Nil Ruz←▼Isaac Barro

76'▲Adrián López←▼Santi Mir

76'▲Raúl Pons←▼Raúl Villalonga

Alaior substitutes

MarquésRuzLópezPons

Manager: Raúl Casañ

46'▲Marquitos←▼Nofre Riera

76'▲Dani Sales←▼Mario Riquelme

76'▲F. Núñez←▼Xesc Navalón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

MarquitosSalesNúñez

Match Recap: Alaior vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Alaior 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 27, 2024.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (35').

The match was played at Estadio Los Pinos in Menorca.

Alaior vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Alaior vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas