Iberia 1–1 Deportes Limache: Result & Stats

Iberia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportes Limache

4/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Municipal de Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Iberia33%

×Draw28%

Deportes Limache38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IberiaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Limache

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.19

Iberia

1.09

Deportes Limache

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 35 away

1.22

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Iberia

1.22

Deportes Limache

1.17

allows per match

Iberia

1.22

Deportes Limache

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iberia+0.00on par

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iberia ↓

Deportes Limache →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Iberia or draw

62%

Iberia or Deportes Limache

72%

Draw or Deportes Limache

67%

Winning margin

Iberia wins by 2+

13%

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Iberia 1+ goals

66%

Iberia 2+ goals

30%

Iberia 3+ goals

10%

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

70%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

33%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Iberia (draw refunded)

47%

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iberia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 46 matches

Deportes Limache away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iberia attack 1.22 + Deportes Limache defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportes Limache attack 1.17 + Iberia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Iberia scores more

33%

level

28%

Deportes Limache scores more

38%

Deportes Limache at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff