Deportes Limache 1–0 Iberia: Result & Stats

Deportes Limache

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Iberia

8/12/2023

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Deportes Limache42%

×Draw26%

Iberia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportes LimacheExpected goals in this matchIberia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.18

Deportes Limache

1.41

Iberia

1.18

Deportes Limache creates 19% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 46 away

1.80

creates per match

1.30

1.06

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Deportes Limache

1.80

Iberia

1.30

allows per match

Deportes Limache

1.06

Iberia

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportes Limache+0.00on par

Iberia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Limache ↓

Iberia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportes Limache or draw

69%

Deportes Limache or Iberia

74%

Draw or Iberia

58%

Winning margin

Deportes Limache wins by 2+

20%

Iberia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Deportes Limache 1+ goals

76%

Deportes Limache 2+ goals

41%

Deportes Limache 3+ goals

17%

Iberia 1+ goals

69%

Iberia 2+ goals

33%

Iberia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportes Limache (draw refunded)

57%

Iberia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Limache at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 35 matches

Iberia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Limache attack 1.80 + Iberia defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.41

Iberia attack 1.30 + Deportes Limache defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deportes Limache scores more

42%

level

26%

Iberia scores more

31%

Deportes Limache at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deportes Limache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff