Ibarra 6–2 Guía: Result & Stats

Ibarra

6 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Guía

Abián González 89'

Guille 88'

Mechi 44' (pen)

Coly 40'

Johny 22', 20'

Kilian 23'

Alberto Sanfiel 7'

6/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Villa Isabel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ibarra50%

×Draw25%

Guía26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IbarraExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.10

Ibarra

1.63

Guía

1.10

Ibarra creates 48% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 14 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.14

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Ibarra

1.18

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Ibarra

1.14

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibarra+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibarra ↓

Guía →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ibarra or draw

74%

Ibarra or Guía

75%

Draw or Guía

50%

Winning margin

Ibarra wins by 2+

26%

Guía wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ibarra 1+ goals

80%

Ibarra 2+ goals

48%

Ibarra 3+ goals

22%

Guía 1+ goals

67%

Guía 2+ goals

30%

Guía 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ibarra (draw refunded)

66%

Guía (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibarra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibarra attack 1.18 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.63

Guía attack 1.07 + Ibarra defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ibarra scores more

50%

level

25%

Guía scores more

26%

Ibarra at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ibarra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

22'

23'

40'

44'

MechiPenalty

46'

Melo← Javi Mejías

46'

Rivero← Roberto

62'

Gabri← Mendy

62'

David Flaco← Delgado

62'

Omar Díaz← Alberto Sanfiel

62'

Adonay← Alexander Martel

74'

Abián González← Mechi

83'

Guille← Ibra

88'

Guille

89'

Abián González

Ibarra

Guía

Primo

▼

Mejías

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Carli Perdomo

62'▲Gabri←▼Mendy

74'▲Abián González←▼Mechi

83'▲Guille←▼Ibra

Ibarra substitutes

GabriGonzálezGuille

Manager: Iván Mendoza

46'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

46'▲Rivero←▼Roberto

62'▲David Flaco←▼Delgado

62'▲Omar Díaz←▼Alberto Sanfiel

62'▲Adonay←▼Alexander Martel

Guía substitutes

MeloRiveroFlacoDíazAdonay

Ibarra 6 – 2 Guía

Ibarra beat Guía 6-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on June 27, 2021.

Goals: Alberto Sanfiel (7'), Johny (20', 22'), Kilian (23'), Coly (40'), Mechi (44' pen), Guille (88'), Abián González (89').

The match was played at Estadio Villa Isabel in Tenerife.

Ibarra vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ibarra 6 – 2 Guía