Guía 3–0 Ibarra: Result & Stats

Guía

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ibarra

Jesús Farías 78'

Cristian 73' (pen)

Melo 63'

5/22/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía52%

×Draw24%

Ibarra24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchIbarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.08

Guía

1.71

Ibarra

1.08

Guía creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 77 away

1.43

creates per match

0.88

1.29

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Ibarra

0.88

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Ibarra

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Ibarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Ibarra →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guía or draw

76%

Guía or Ibarra

76%

Draw or Ibarra

48%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

28%

Ibarra wins by 2+

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

82%

Guía 2+ goals

51%

Guía 3+ goals

24%

Ibarra 1+ goals

66%

Ibarra 2+ goals

29%

Ibarra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

68%

Ibarra (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Ibarra away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.99 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Ibarra defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ibarra attack 0.88 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guía scores more

52%

level

24%

Ibarra scores more

24%

Guía at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

Meshack← Arodi

63'

Melo

68'

Melo← Kilian

73'

Xavi← Mechi

73'

Mendy← Ibra

73'

CristianPenalty

76'

David Flaco← B. Ibarguen

78'

Rubén Mendoza← Delgado

78'

Adonay← Jesús Farías

78'

Jesús Farías

Guía

Ibarra

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Farías

▼

Kilian

Manager: Iván Mendoza

68'▲Melo←▼Kilian

76'▲David Flaco←▼B. Ibarguen

78'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼Delgado

78'▲Adonay←▼Jesús Farías

Guía substitutes

MeloFlacoMendozaAdonay

Manager: Carli Perdomo

59'▲Meshack←▼Arodi

73'▲Xavi←▼Mechi

73'▲Mendy←▼Ibra

Ibarra substitutes

MeshackXaviMendy

Guía 3 – 0 Ibarra

Guía beat Ibarra 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 22, 2021.

Goals: Melo (63'), Cristian (73' pen), Jesús Farías (78').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Ibarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Guía 3 – 0 Ibarra