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Ibar vs Dečić — Second League 2019

Ibar
Ibar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Dečić
Dečić
6/24/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 28Stadion Bandzovo Brdo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ibar32%
×Draw26%
Dečić42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ibar
1.25
Dečić
1.46

Dečić creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ibar
1.29
Dečić
1.73

allows per match

Ibar
1.20
Dečić
1.20

finishing

Ibar+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibar ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ibar or draw
58%
Ibar or Dečić
74%
Draw or Dečić
68%

Winning margin

Ibar wins by 2+
14%
Dečić wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ibar 1+ goals
71%
Ibar 2+ goals
36%
Ibar 3+ goals
13%
Dečić 1+ goals
77%
Dečić 2+ goals
43%
Dečić 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ibar (draw refunded)
44%
Dečić (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ibar at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ibar attack 1.29 + Dečić defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dečić attack 1.73 + Ibar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ibar scores more
32%
level
26%
Dečić scores more
42%

Dečić at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Ibar 0–4 Dečić

Dečić beat Ibar 4-0 in Second League on June 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Bandzovo Brdo in Rožaje.