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Dečić vs Ibar — Second League 2019

Dečić
Dečić
FT
3 – 3
Ibar
Ibar
12/1/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Stadion Tuško Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dečić67%
×Draw19%
Ibar14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dečić
2.13
Ibar
0.84

Dečić creates 154% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 50 away

creates per match

Dečić
2.33
Ibar
0.68

allows per match

Dečić
1.00
Ibar
1.92

finishing

Dečić+0.00on par
Ibar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dečić ↓

Ibar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dečić or draw
86%
Dečić or Ibar
81%
Draw or Ibar
33%

Winning margin

Dečić wins by 2+
43%
Ibar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dečić 1+ goals
88%
Dečić 2+ goals
63%
Dečić 3+ goals
35%
Ibar 1+ goals
57%
Ibar 2+ goals
21%
Ibar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dečić (draw refunded)
83%
Ibar (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dečić at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Ibar away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dečić attack 2.33 + Ibar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ibar attack 0.68 + Dečić defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dečić scores more
67%
level
19%
Ibar scores more
14%

Dečić at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dečić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dečić 3–3 Ibar

Dečić and Ibar drew 3-3 in Second League on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Tuško Polje in Tuzi.