I-Kissat 2–3 HJS Akatemia: Result & Stats

I-Kissat

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

HJS Akatemia

5/26/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 5Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

I-Kissat42%

×Draw21%

HJS Akatemia37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

I-KissatExpected goals in this matchHJS Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.84

I-Kissat

1.97

HJS Akatemia

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 80 away

2.18

creates per match

1.45

2.23

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

I-Kissat

2.18

HJS Akatemia

1.45

allows per match

I-Kissat

2.23

HJS Akatemia

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

I-Kissat+0.00on par

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

I-Kissat ↓

HJS Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

I-Kissat or draw

63%

I-Kissat or HJS Akatemia

79%

Draw or HJS Akatemia

58%

Winning margin

I-Kissat wins by 2+

23%

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

I-Kissat 1+ goals

86%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

58%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

31%

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

84%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

55%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

53%

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

I-Kissat at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

I-Kissat attack 2.18 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.97

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + I-Kissat defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

I-Kissat scores more

42%

level

21%

HJS Akatemia scores more

37%

I-Kissat at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff