HJS Akatemia 5–1 I-Kissat: Result & Stats

HJS Akatemia

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

I-Kissat

5/4/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 6Pulleri tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

HJS Akatemia48%

×Draw21%

I-Kissat32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HJS AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchI-Kissat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.77

HJS Akatemia

2.20

I-Kissat

1.77

HJS Akatemia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

2.04

creates per match

2.00

1.55

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

HJS Akatemia

2.04

I-Kissat

2.00

allows per match

HJS Akatemia

1.55

I-Kissat

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

I-Kissat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJS Akatemia ↓

I-Kissat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

HJS Akatemia or draw

68%

HJS Akatemia or I-Kissat

79%

Draw or I-Kissat

52%

Winning margin

HJS Akatemia wins by 2+

28%

I-Kissat wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

HJS Akatemia 1+ goals

89%

HJS Akatemia 2+ goals

64%

HJS Akatemia 3+ goals

37%

I-Kissat 1+ goals

83%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

53%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)

60%

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJS Akatemia at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

I-Kissat away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJS Akatemia attack 2.04 + I-Kissat defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.20

I-Kissat attack 2.00 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HJS Akatemia scores more

48%

level

21%

I-Kissat scores more

32%

HJS Akatemia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HJS Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff