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I-Kissat vs Atlantis — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

I-Kissat
I-Kissat
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Atlantis
Atlantis
6/5/2023Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 6Kauppi 3 TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

I-Kissat40%
×Draw20%
Atlantis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

I-Kissat
2.09
Atlantis
2.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 22 away

creates per match

I-Kissat
2.18
Atlantis
1.91

allows per match

I-Kissat
2.23
Atlantis
2.00

finishing

I-Kissat+0.00on par
Atlantis+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

I-Kissat ↓

Atlantis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

I-Kissat or draw
61%
I-Kissat or Atlantis
80%
Draw or Atlantis
60%

Winning margin

I-Kissat wins by 2+
22%
Atlantis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

I-Kissat 1+ goals
88%
I-Kissat 2+ goals
62%
I-Kissat 3+ goals
34%
Atlantis 1+ goals
87%
Atlantis 2+ goals
61%
Atlantis 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

I-Kissat (draw refunded)
50%
Atlantis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

I-Kissat at home — creates 2.18, concedes 2.23 · 44 matches

Atlantis away — creates 1.91, concedes 2.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

I-Kissat attack 2.18 + Atlantis defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Atlantis attack 1.91 + I-Kissat defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

I-Kissat scores more
40%
level
20%
Atlantis scores more
39%

I-Kissat at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "I-Kissat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: I-Kissat vs Atlantis

I-Kissat beat Atlantis 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kauppi 3 TN in Tampere.