Atlantis 3–2 I-Kissat: Result & Stats

Atlantis

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

I-Kissat

8/25/2023

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 16Pukinmäki liikuntapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Atlantis49%

×Draw19%

I-Kissat31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantisExpected goals in this matchI-Kissat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.95

Atlantis

2.46

I-Kissat

1.95

Atlantis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 44 away

2.57

creates per match

2.00

1.90

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Atlantis

2.57

I-Kissat

2.00

allows per match

Atlantis

1.90

I-Kissat

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlantis+0.00on par

I-Kissat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlantis ↓

I-Kissat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Atlantis or draw

69%

Atlantis or I-Kissat

81%

Draw or I-Kissat

51%

Winning margin

Atlantis wins by 2+

30%

I-Kissat wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Atlantis 1+ goals

91%

Atlantis 2+ goals

70%

Atlantis 3+ goals

44%

I-Kissat 1+ goals

86%

I-Kissat 2+ goals

58%

I-Kissat 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Atlantis (draw refunded)

61%

I-Kissat (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlantis at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

I-Kissat away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlantis attack 2.57 + I-Kissat defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.46

I-Kissat attack 2.00 + Atlantis defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atlantis scores more

49%

level

19%

I-Kissat scores more

31%

Atlantis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Atlantis 3–2 I-Kissat

Atlantis beat I-Kissat 3-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pukinmäki liikuntapuisto in Helsinki.

Atlantis vs I-Kissat — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Atlantis 3–2 I-Kissat