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Hwaseong vs Gyeongju HNP — K3 League 2026

Hwaseong
Hwaseong
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
6/17/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 15Hwaseong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hwaseong37%
×Draw28%
Gyeongju HNP35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaseong
1.17
Gyeongju HNP
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 117 away

creates per match

Hwaseong
1.23
Gyeongju HNP
1.32

allows per match

Hwaseong
0.96
Gyeongju HNP
1.10

finishing

Hwaseong+0.00on par
Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaseong ↓

Gyeongju HNP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hwaseong or draw
65%
Hwaseong or Gyeongju HNP
72%
Draw or Gyeongju HNP
63%

Winning margin

Hwaseong wins by 2+
15%
Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hwaseong 1+ goals
69%
Hwaseong 2+ goals
33%
Hwaseong 3+ goals
11%
Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
68%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
32%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hwaseong (draw refunded)
51%
Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaseong at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.96 · 56 matches

Gyeongju HNP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaseong attack 1.23 + Gyeongju HNP defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gyeongju HNP attack 1.32 + Hwaseong defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hwaseong scores more
37%
level
28%
Gyeongju HNP scores more
35%

Hwaseong at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hwaseong vs Gyeongju HNP

Hwaseong and Gyeongju HNP drew 1-1 in K3 League on June 17, 2023.

The match was played at Hwaseong Stadium in Hwaseong.