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Gyeongju HNP vs Hwaseong — K3 League 2026

Gyeongju HNP
Gyeongju HNP
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hwaseong
Hwaseong
11/11/2023K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 30Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Gyeongju HNP40%
×Draw28%
Hwaseong32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongju HNP
1.25
Hwaseong
1.07

Gyeongju HNP creates 17% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 54 away

creates per match

Gyeongju HNP
1.41
Hwaseong
1.22

allows per match

Gyeongju HNP
0.93
Hwaseong
1.09

finishing

Gyeongju HNP+0.00on par
Hwaseong+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongju HNP ↓

Hwaseong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Gyeongju HNP or draw
68%
Gyeongju HNP or Hwaseong
72%
Draw or Hwaseong
60%

Winning margin

Gyeongju HNP wins by 2+
18%
Hwaseong wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gyeongju HNP 1+ goals
71%
Gyeongju HNP 2+ goals
36%
Gyeongju HNP 3+ goals
13%
Hwaseong 1+ goals
66%
Hwaseong 2+ goals
29%
Hwaseong 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Gyeongju HNP (draw refunded)
56%
Hwaseong (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongju HNP at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 113 matches

Hwaseong away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongju HNP attack 1.41 + Hwaseong defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hwaseong attack 1.22 + Gyeongju HNP defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gyeongju HNP scores more
40%
level
28%
Hwaseong scores more
32%

Gyeongju HNP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gyeongju HNP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Gyeongju HNP 0–1 Hwaseong

Hwaseong beat Gyeongju HNP 1-0 in K3 League on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Gyeongju Sports Complex artificial in Gyeongju.