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Hwange vs Cranborne Bullets — Premier Soccer League 2026

Hwange
Hwange
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cranborne Bullets
Cranborne Bullets
4/22/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Luveve Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hwange46%
×Draw31%
Cranborne Bullets23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwange
1.16
Cranborne Bullets
0.74

Hwange creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Hwange
1.00
Cranborne Bullets
0.71

allows per match

Hwange
0.78
Cranborne Bullets
1.32

finishing

Hwange+0.00on par
Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwange ↓

Cranborne Bullets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hwange or draw
77%
Hwange or Cranborne Bullets
69%
Draw or Cranborne Bullets
54%

Winning margin

Hwange wins by 2+
20%
Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hwange 1+ goals
69%
Hwange 2+ goals
32%
Hwange 3+ goals
11%
Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals
52%
Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals
17%
Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hwange (draw refunded)
66%
Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

Cranborne Bullets away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwange attack 1.00 + Cranborne Bullets defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.71 + Hwange defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hwange scores more
46%
level
31%
Cranborne Bullets scores more
23%

Hwange at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hwange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hwange vs Cranborne Bullets

Hwange beat Cranborne Bullets 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Luveve Stadium in Bulawayo.