Cranborne Bullets 0–1 Hwange: Result & Stats

Cranborne Bullets

FT

0 – 1

Hwange

9/16/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Nyamhunga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cranborne Bullets40%

×Draw33%

Hwange27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cranborne BulletsExpected goals in this matchHwange

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.76

Cranborne Bullets

1.01

Hwange

0.76

Cranborne Bullets creates 33% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

0.65

creates per match

0.60

0.91

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.65

Hwange

0.60

allows per match

Cranborne Bullets

0.91

Hwange

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cranborne Bullets+0.00on par

Hwange+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cranborne Bullets ↓

Hwange →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Cranborne Bullets or draw

73%

Cranborne Bullets or Hwange

67%

Draw or Hwange

60%

Winning margin

Cranborne Bullets wins by 2+

16%

Hwange wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cranborne Bullets 1+ goals

64%

Cranborne Bullets 2+ goals

27%

Cranborne Bullets 3+ goals

8%

Hwange 1+ goals

53%

Hwange 2+ goals

18%

Hwange 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Cranborne Bullets (draw refunded)

60%

Hwange (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cranborne Bullets at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.91 · 34 matches

Hwange away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.37 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cranborne Bullets attack 0.65 + Hwange defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hwange attack 0.60 + Cranborne Bullets defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cranborne Bullets scores more

40%

level

33%

Hwange scores more

27%

Cranborne Bullets at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cranborne Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff