Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hwaebul vs Hang Yuen — AFC Cup 2018

Hwaebul
Hwaebul
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
4/10/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hwaebul78%
×Draw12%
Hang Yuen10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaebul
3.54
Hang Yuen
1.25

Hwaebul creates 183% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hwaebul
2.75
Hang Yuen
1.00

allows per match

Hwaebul
1.50
Hang Yuen
4.33

finishing

Hwaebul+0.00on par
Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaebul ↓

Hang Yuen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Hwaebul or draw
90%
Hwaebul or Hang Yuen
88%
Draw or Hang Yuen
22%

Winning margin

Hwaebul wins by 2+
60%
Hang Yuen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hwaebul 1+ goals
97%
Hwaebul 2+ goals
86%
Hwaebul 3+ goals
66%
Hang Yuen 1+ goals
71%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
36%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hwaebul (draw refunded)
89%
Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaebul at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaebul attack 2.75 + Hang Yuen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.54

Hang Yuen attack 1.00 + Hwaebul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hwaebul scores more
78%
level
12%
Hang Yuen scores more
10%

Hwaebul at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Hwaebul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Hwaebul 6–1 Hang Yuen

Hwaebul beat Hang Yuen 6-1 in AFC Cup on April 10, 2018.

The match was played at Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang)).