Hang Yuen 0–1 Hwaebul: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Hang Yuen

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hwaebul

4/25/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Fu Jen Catholic University (New Taipei City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hang Yuen15%

×Draw21%

Hwaebul64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hang YuenExpected goals in this matchHwaebul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.96

Hang Yuen

0.83

Hwaebul

1.96

Hwaebul creates 136% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

0.67

creates per match

1.25

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hang Yuen

0.67

Hwaebul

1.25

allows per match

Hang Yuen

2.67

Hwaebul

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Hwaebul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Hwaebul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw

36%

Hang Yuen or Hwaebul

79%

Draw or Hwaebul

85%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+

5%

Hwaebul wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals

56%

Hang Yuen 2+ goals

20%

Hang Yuen 3+ goals

5%

Hwaebul 1+ goals

86%

Hwaebul 2+ goals

58%

Hwaebul 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)

19%

Hwaebul (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Hwaebul away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 0.67 + Hwaebul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Hwaebul attack 1.25 + Hang Yuen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hang Yuen scores more

15%

level

21%

Hwaebul scores more

64%

Hwaebul at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hwaebul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff