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Hwaebul vs Benfica — AFC Cup 2018

Hwaebul
Hwaebul
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Benfica
Benfica
3/14/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hwaebul62%
×Draw16%
Benfica22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaebul
3.21
Benfica
1.92

Hwaebul creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hwaebul
2.75
Benfica
2.33

allows per match

Hwaebul
1.50
Benfica
3.67

finishing

Hwaebul+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaebul ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Hwaebul or draw
78%
Hwaebul or Benfica
84%
Draw or Benfica
38%

Winning margin

Hwaebul wins by 2+
43%
Benfica wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hwaebul 1+ goals
96%
Hwaebul 2+ goals
82%
Hwaebul 3+ goals
60%
Benfica 1+ goals
85%
Benfica 2+ goals
57%
Benfica 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Hwaebul (draw refunded)
74%
Benfica (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaebul at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaebul attack 2.75 + Benfica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.21

Benfica attack 2.33 + Hwaebul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hwaebul scores more
62%
level
16%
Benfica scores more
22%

Hwaebul at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hwaebul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hwaebul vs Benfica

Benfica beat Hwaebul 3-2 in AFC Cup on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang)).