Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Benfica vs Hwaebul — AFC Cup 2018

Benfica
Benfica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hwaebul
Hwaebul
5/16/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Macau Olympic Complex Stadium (Taipa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Benfica42%
×Draw25%
Hwaebul33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benfica
1.50
Hwaebul
1.29

Benfica creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Benfica
2.00
Hwaebul
1.25

allows per match

Benfica
1.33
Hwaebul
1.00

finishing

Benfica+0.00on par
Hwaebul+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica ↓

Hwaebul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Benfica or draw
67%
Benfica or Hwaebul
75%
Draw or Hwaebul
58%

Winning margin

Benfica wins by 2+
21%
Hwaebul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Benfica 1+ goals
78%
Benfica 2+ goals
44%
Benfica 3+ goals
19%
Hwaebul 1+ goals
72%
Hwaebul 2+ goals
37%
Hwaebul 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Benfica (draw refunded)
56%
Hwaebul (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hwaebul away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica attack 2.00 + Hwaebul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hwaebul attack 1.25 + Benfica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Benfica scores more
42%
level
25%
Hwaebul scores more
33%

Benfica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Benfica vs Hwaebul

Benfica beat Hwaebul 3-0 in AFC Cup on May 16, 2018.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium (Taipa).