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Hwaebul vs April 25 — AFC Cup 2018

Hwaebul
Hwaebul
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
April 25
April 25
5/2/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hwaebul39%
×Draw21%
April 2540%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hwaebul
1.88
April 25
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hwaebul
2.75
April 25
2.30

allows per match

Hwaebul
1.50
April 25
1.00

finishing

Hwaebul+0.00on par
April 25+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hwaebul ↓

April 25 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hwaebul or draw
60%
Hwaebul or April 25
79%
Draw or April 25
61%

Winning margin

Hwaebul wins by 2+
21%
April 25 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hwaebul 1+ goals
85%
Hwaebul 2+ goals
56%
Hwaebul 3+ goals
29%
April 25 1+ goals
85%
April 25 2+ goals
56%
April 25 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hwaebul (draw refunded)
50%
April 25 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hwaebul at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

April 25 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hwaebul attack 2.75 + April 25 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

April 25 attack 2.30 + Hwaebul defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hwaebul scores more
39%
level
21%
April 25 scores more
40%

April 25 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hwaebul vs April 25

April 25 beat Hwaebul 2-0 in AFC Cup on May 2, 2018.

The match was played at Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang)).