April 25 1–0 Hwaebul: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

April 25

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hwaebul

3/7/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Rŭngrado May First Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

April 2568%

×Draw19%

Hwaebul13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

April 25Expected goals in this matchHwaebul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.85

April 25

2.23

Hwaebul

0.85

April 25 creates 162% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

3.45

creates per match

1.25

0.45

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

April 25

3.45

Hwaebul

1.25

allows per match

April 25

0.45

Hwaebul

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

April 25+0.00on par

Hwaebul+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

April 25 ↓

Hwaebul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

April 25 or draw

87%

April 25 or Hwaebul

81%

Draw or Hwaebul

32%

Winning margin

April 25 wins by 2+

45%

Hwaebul wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

April 25 1+ goals

89%

April 25 2+ goals

65%

April 25 3+ goals

38%

Hwaebul 1+ goals

57%

Hwaebul 2+ goals

21%

Hwaebul 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

April 25 (draw refunded)

84%

Hwaebul (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

April 25 at home — creates 3.45, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Hwaebul away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

April 25 attack 3.45 + Hwaebul defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Hwaebul attack 1.25 + April 25 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

April 25 scores more

68%

level

19%

Hwaebul scores more

13%

April 25 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff