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Hussein Dey vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
4/15/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Hussein Dey48%
×Draw27%
AS Ain Mlila25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hussein Dey
1.44
AS Ain Mlila
0.96

Hussein Dey creates 50% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

creates per match

Hussein Dey
1.05
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

Hussein Dey
1.14
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

Hussein Dey+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hussein Dey ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hussein Dey or draw
75%
Hussein Dey or AS Ain Mlila
73%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
52%

Winning margin

Hussein Dey wins by 2+
24%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hussein Dey 1+ goals
76%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
42%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
18%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
62%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
25%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
66%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hussein Dey at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hussein Dey attack 1.05 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.44

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + Hussein Dey defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hussein Dey scores more
48%
level
27%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
25%

Hussein Dey at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hussein Dey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hussein Dey 1 – 1 AS Ain Mlila

Hussein Dey and AS Ain Mlila drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on April 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (al-Jazā’ir (Algiers)).