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AS AIN Mlila vs Hussein Dey — Ligue 1 2018

AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hussein Dey
Hussein Dey
3/14/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AS AIN Mlila52%
×Draw29%
Hussein Dey20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS AIN Mlila
1.31
Hussein Dey
0.69

AS AIN Mlila creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 63 away

creates per match

AS AIN Mlila
1.09
Hussein Dey
0.79

allows per match

AS AIN Mlila
0.58
Hussein Dey
1.52

finishing

AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par
Hussein Dey+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS AIN Mlila ↓

Hussein Dey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AS AIN Mlila or draw
80%
AS AIN Mlila or Hussein Dey
71%
Draw or Hussein Dey
48%

Winning margin

AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
24%
Hussein Dey wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
73%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
38%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
14%
Hussein Dey 1+ goals
50%
Hussein Dey 2+ goals
15%
Hussein Dey 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
72%
Hussein Dey (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS AIN Mlila at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.58 · 45 matches

Hussein Dey away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.52 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS AIN Mlila attack 1.09 + Hussein Dey defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hussein Dey attack 0.79 + AS AIN Mlila defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS AIN Mlila scores more
52%
level
29%
Hussein Dey scores more
20%

AS AIN Mlila at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "AS AIN Mlila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AS AIN Mlila 1 – 0 Hussein Dey

AS AIN Mlila beat Hussein Dey 1-0 in Ligue 1 on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Touhami Zoubir Khelifi (Aïn M'lila).