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Hürth vs Eintracht Hohkeppel — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
6/4/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 29Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hürth32%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Hohkeppel45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.39
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.69

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 43 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.91

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.40

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
55%
Hürth or Eintracht Hohkeppel
76%
Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel
68%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
14%
Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
75%
Hürth 2+ goals
40%
Hürth 3+ goals
16%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
50%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
42%
Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hürth scores more
32%
level
24%
Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
45%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hürth vs Eintracht Hohkeppel

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat Hürth 4-3 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.