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Eintracht Hohkeppel vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Eintracht Hohkeppel
Eintracht Hohkeppel
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Hürth
Hürth
11/27/2022Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Hohkeppel Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel68%
×Draw17%
Hürth15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Hohkeppel
2.71
Hürth
1.21

Eintracht Hohkeppel creates 124% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

creates per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
3.38
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Eintracht Hohkeppel
1.02
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Hohkeppel ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Eintracht Hohkeppel or draw
85%
Eintracht Hohkeppel or Hürth
83%
Draw or Hürth
32%

Winning margin

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+
47%
Hürth wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals
93%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals
75%
Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals
50%
Hürth 1+ goals
70%
Hürth 2+ goals
34%
Hürth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)
82%
Hürth (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Hohkeppel at home — creates 3.38, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 3.38 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.71

Hürth attack 1.41 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more
68%
level
17%
Hürth scores more
15%

Eintracht Hohkeppel at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Eintracht Hohkeppel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Eintracht Hohkeppel 4–1 Hürth

Eintracht Hohkeppel beat Hürth 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Hohkeppel Kunstrasen in Lindlar.