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Hürth vs Bonn-Endenich — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Hürth
Hürth
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
10/15/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 10Salus Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hürth51%
×Draw23%
Bonn-Endenich26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hürth
1.85
Bonn-Endenich
1.25

Hürth creates 48% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hürth
1.37
Bonn-Endenich
1.03

allows per match

Hürth
1.46
Bonn-Endenich
2.34

finishing

Hürth+0.00on par
Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hürth ↓

Bonn-Endenich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hürth or draw
74%
Hürth or Bonn-Endenich
77%
Draw or Bonn-Endenich
49%

Winning margin

Hürth wins by 2+
29%
Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hürth 1+ goals
84%
Hürth 2+ goals
55%
Hürth 3+ goals
28%
Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
71%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
36%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hürth (draw refunded)
66%
Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hürth at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.46 · 65 matches

Bonn-Endenich away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.34 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hürth attack 1.37 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.85

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.03 + Hürth defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hürth scores more
51%
level
23%
Bonn-Endenich scores more
26%

Hürth at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Hürth 0–2 Bonn-Endenich

Bonn-Endenich beat Hürth 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Salus Park in Hürth.