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Bonn-Endenich vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hürth
Hürth
4/14/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 25Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich37%
×Draw22%
Hürth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonn-Endenich
1.71
Hürth
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich
1.40
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich
2.17
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw
60%
Bonn-Endenich or Hürth
78%
Draw or Hürth
63%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
19%
Hürth wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
82%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
51%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
24%
Hürth 1+ goals
83%
Hürth 2+ goals
53%
Hürth 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
48%
Hürth (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hürth attack 1.41 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more
37%
level
22%
Hürth scores more
40%

Hürth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hürth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bonn-Endenich 1–1 Hürth

Bonn-Endenich and Hürth drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße in Bonn.