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Huragan Morąg vs Concordia Elbląg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
0 – 3
Concordia Elbląg
Concordia Elbląg
10/10/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg42%
×Draw22%
Concordia Elbląg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.81
Concordia Elbląg
1.65

Huragan Morąg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Concordia Elbląg
1.04

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Concordia Elbląg
2.57

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Concordia Elbląg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
64%
Huragan Morąg or Concordia Elbląg
78%
Draw or Concordia Elbląg
58%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
22%
Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
84%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
54%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
27%
Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals
81%
Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals
49%
Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
54%
Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Concordia Elbląg away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Concordia Elbląg defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.81

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.04 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
42%
level
22%
Concordia Elbląg scores more
36%

Huragan Morąg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huragan Morąg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huragan Morąg vs Concordia Elbląg

Concordia Elbląg beat Huragan Morąg 3-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.