Concordia Elbląg 4–1 Huragan Morąg: Result & Stats

Concordia Elbląg

FT

4 – 1

Huragan Morąg

5/29/2021

III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Stadion MOSiR ul. Krakusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Concordia Elbląg48%

×Draw23%

Huragan Morąg29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia ElblągExpected goals in this matchHuragan Morąg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.33

Concordia Elbląg

1.76

Huragan Morąg

1.33

Concordia Elbląg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

1.29

creates per match

1.22

1.45

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.29

Huragan Morąg

1.22

allows per match

Concordia Elbląg

1.45

Huragan Morąg

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Elbląg+0.00on par

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Elbląg ↓

Huragan Morąg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Concordia Elbląg or draw

71%

Concordia Elbląg or Huragan Morąg

77%

Draw or Huragan Morąg

52%

Winning margin

Concordia Elbląg wins by 2+

26%

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Concordia Elbląg 1+ goals

83%

Concordia Elbląg 2+ goals

52%

Concordia Elbląg 3+ goals

26%

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals

74%

Huragan Morąg 2+ goals

38%

Huragan Morąg 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Concordia Elbląg (draw refunded)

62%

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Elbląg at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.45 · 51 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Elbląg attack 1.29 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.76

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Concordia Elbląg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Concordia Elbląg scores more

48%

level

23%

Huragan Morąg scores more

29%

Concordia Elbląg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Concordia Elbląg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff