Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huragan Morąg vs Błonianka Błonie — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
FT
0 – 2
Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
M. Gregorowicz 52', 31'
4/25/2021III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stadion Huragan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Huragan Morąg29%
×Draw23%
Błonianka Błonie48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huragan Morąg
1.34
Błonianka Błonie
1.81

Błonianka Błonie creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 52 away

creates per match

Huragan Morąg
1.06
Błonianka Błonie
1.37

allows per match

Huragan Morąg
2.25
Błonianka Błonie
1.63

finishing

Huragan Morąg+0.00on par
Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huragan Morąg ↓

Błonianka Błonie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Huragan Morąg or draw
52%
Huragan Morąg or Błonianka Błonie
77%
Draw or Błonianka Błonie
71%

Winning margin

Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
12%
Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
74%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
39%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
15%
Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
84%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
54%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
37%
Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huragan Morąg at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

Błonianka Błonie away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huragan Morąg attack 1.06 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.37 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huragan Morąg scores more
29%
level
23%
Błonianka Błonie scores more
48%

Błonianka Błonie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. Gregorowicz
52'
M. Gregorowicz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Huragan Morąg 0–2 Błonianka Błonie

Błonianka Błonie beat Huragan Morąg 2-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 25, 2021.

Goals: M. Gregorowicz (31', 52').

The match was played at Stadion Huragan in Morąg.