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Błonianka Błonie vs Huragan Morąg — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Błonianka Błonie
Błonianka Błonie
FT
2 – 3
Huragan Morąg
Huragan Morąg
9/19/2020III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Błonianka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Błonianka Błonie48%
×Draw22%
Huragan Morąg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Błonianka Błonie
1.98
Huragan Morąg
1.54

Błonianka Błonie creates 29% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.73
Huragan Morąg
1.22

allows per match

Błonianka Błonie
1.85
Huragan Morąg
2.22

finishing

Błonianka Błonie+0.00on par
Huragan Morąg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Błonianka Błonie ↓

Huragan Morąg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Błonianka Błonie or draw
70%
Błonianka Błonie or Huragan Morąg
78%
Draw or Huragan Morąg
52%

Winning margin

Błonianka Błonie wins by 2+
27%
Huragan Morąg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Błonianka Błonie 1+ goals
86%
Błonianka Błonie 2+ goals
59%
Błonianka Błonie 3+ goals
31%
Huragan Morąg 1+ goals
79%
Huragan Morąg 2+ goals
45%
Huragan Morąg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Błonianka Błonie (draw refunded)
61%
Huragan Morąg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Błonianka Błonie at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

Huragan Morąg away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Błonianka Błonie attack 1.73 + Huragan Morąg defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.98

Huragan Morąg attack 1.22 + Błonianka Błonie defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Błonianka Błonie scores more
48%
level
22%
Huragan Morąg scores more
30%

Błonianka Błonie at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Błonianka Błonie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Błonianka Błonie vs Huragan Morąg

Huragan Morąg beat Błonianka Błonie 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Błonianka in Błonie.