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Huracan vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Huracan
Huracan
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
S. Hezze 63' (OG)
7/30/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huracan44%
×Draw27%
Gimnasia L.P.29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huracan
1.38
Gimnasia L.P.
1.07

Huracan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Huracan
1.18
Gimnasia L.P.
1.18

allows per match

Huracan
0.96
Gimnasia L.P.
1.58

finishing

Huracan-0.78scores less
Gimnasia L.P.-0.18scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huracan or draw
71%
Huracan or Gimnasia L.P.
73%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
56%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+
21%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals
75%
Huracan 2+ goals
40%
Huracan 3+ goals
16%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
66%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
29%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)
60%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.96 · 5 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.58 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.18 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.18 + Huracan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huracan scores more
44%
level
27%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
29%

Huracan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
G. BenítezHuracanHuracan · D
7.7

Match Events

25'
Benjamín Garré
40'
Germán Guiffrey
45+1'
Tomás Muro
47'
Ramón Sosa
55'
Fernando Tobio
63'
S. HezzeOwn goal
68'
M. Insaurralde← T. Muro
71'
I. Quílez← G. Soto
71'
N. Cordero← G. Gudiño
72'
Guillermo Enrique
76'
L. Contín← F. Soldano
76'
O. Piris← E. Ramírez
79'
Agustín Cardozo
84'
A. Curruhinca← B. Garré
87'
Lucas Merolla
90+3'
Emanuel Cecchini
90+1'
R. Cecchini← B. Alemán

Possession

67%Huracan

Shots

14Huracan

Pass accuracy

57%Huracan

Statistics

HuracanGimnasia
Overview
67%Possession33%
14Total Shots8
2Corners4
9Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots8
2On Target1
10Off Target3
2Blocked4
12Inside Box2
2Outside Box6
Passing
67%Possession33%
512Total Passes250
402Accurate Passes151
79%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls12
3Yellow Cards6
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Huracan 0–1 Gimnasia L.P.

Gimnasia L.P. beat Huracan 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 30, 2022.

Goals: S. Hezze (63' o.g.).

Huracan controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.