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Gimnasia L.P. vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
8/28/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.27%
×Draw31%
Huracan42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
0.84
Huracan
1.11

Huracan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
0.79
Huracan
0.79

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.43
Huracan
0.89

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.08on par
Huracan+0.21scores more

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–116%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
58%
Gimnasia L.P. or Huracan
69%
Draw or Huracan
73%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
9%
Huracan wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
57%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
21%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%
Huracan 1+ goals
67%
Huracan 2+ goals
30%
Huracan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
40%
Huracan (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.79 + Huracan defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.84

Huracan attack 0.79 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
27%
level
31%
Huracan scores more
42%

Huracan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. DíazHuracanHuracan · G
8.0

Match Events

46'
H. Mancilla← R. Holgado
46'
J. Acevedo← R. Cabral
54'
L. Chávez← M. Miranda
54'
S. Rincón← N. Silva
61'
Lucas Merolla
64'
L. Rodríguez← A. Domínguez
68'
S. Hezze← F. Cristaldo
68'
P. Toranzo← L. Vera
73'
Jonas Acevedo
75'
M. Cóccaro← J. Candia
79'
Erik Ramírez
79'
N. Colazo← E. Ramírez
79'
L. Contín← B. Alemán
86'
Claudio Yacob

Possession

47%Gimnasia

Shots

9Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

51%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaHuracan
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots2
5Corners7
13Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots2
4On Target0
5Off Target2
0Blocked0
4Inside Box2
5Outside Box0
Passing
47%Possession53%
322Total Passes359
229Accurate Passes245
71%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Huracan

Gimnasia L.P. and Huracan drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 28, 2021.

Huracan controlled possession (53%) and registered 2 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.