Huracan 1–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Huracan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Nacional

L. Grimi 21'

A. Andrade 15' (pen)

2/19/2020

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huracan66%

×Draw19%

Atletico Nacional15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuracanExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.00

Huracan

2.27

Atletico Nacional

1.00

Huracan creates 127% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Huracan

1.88

Atletico Nacional

1.00

allows per match

Huracan

1.00

Atletico Nacional

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huracan+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huracan ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Huracan or draw

85%

Huracan or Atletico Nacional

81%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

34%

Winning margin

Huracan wins by 2+

43%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Huracan 1+ goals

90%

Huracan 2+ goals

66%

Huracan 3+ goals

39%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

63%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

26%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huracan (draw refunded)

81%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huracan at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huracan attack 1.88 + Atletico Nacional defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Atletico Nacional attack 1.00 + Huracan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Huracan scores more

66%

level

19%

Atletico Nacional scores more

15%

Huracan at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Merolla

Huracan · D

7.6

Match Events

13'

Leandro Grimi

15'

A. AndradePenalty

19'

21'

22'

38'

46'

55'

57'

61'

65'

67'

69'

70'

75'

F. Coniglio← M. Bogado

75'

J. Barrera← A. Andrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuracanAtletico

Overview

55%Possession45%

9Total Shots9

7Corners3

25Fouls24

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target2

5Off Target5

2Blocked2

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

307Total Passes255

206Accurate Passes154

67%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

25Fouls24

6Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1