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Atletico Nacional vs Huracan — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
V. Hernández 42'
J. Duque 38'
D. Muñoz 32'
2/6/2020CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Nacional50%
×Draw28%
Huracan22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.38
Huracan
0.81

Atletico Nacional creates 70% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.50
Huracan
0.63

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
1.00
Huracan
1.25

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Huracan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
78%
Atletico Nacional or Huracan
72%
Draw or Huracan
50%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
24%
Huracan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
75%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
40%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
16%
Huracan 1+ goals
56%
Huracan 2+ goals
19%
Huracan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
70%
Huracan (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.50 + Huracan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Huracan attack 0.63 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
50%
level
28%
Huracan scores more
22%

Atletico Nacional at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
D. MuñozAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · D
8.2

Match Events

32'
D. Muñoz↳ A. Andrade
35'
Carlos Araújo
38'
J. Duque↳ Y. Candelo
42'
V. Hernández↳ J. Duque
49'
Baldomero Perlaza
51'
Nicolás Romat
52'
M. Ojeda← J. Mendoza
56'
B. Rovira← B. Perlaza
56'
L. Bareiro← M. Bogado
57'
Mariano Bareiro
60'
N. Cordero← F. Coniglio
61'
F. González← J. Duque
68'
S. Gómez← J. Barrera
90'
Lucas Merolla

Possession

69%Atletico

Shots

17Atletico

Pass accuracy

58%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoHuracan
Overview
69%Possession31%
17Total Shots3
4Corners2
17Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots3
6On Target2
7Off Target1
4Blocked0
11Inside Box3
6Outside Box0
Passing
69%Possession31%
471Total Passes205
387Accurate Passes124
82%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Huracan

Atletico Nacional beat Huracan 3-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on February 6, 2020.

Goals: D. Muñoz (32'), J. Duque (38'), V. Hernández (42').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.